Australia Next Victim of Political Uncertainty

Jul 11 2016, 1:26 AM6 min read

The political environment in Australia is tense, even as the Liberal Coalition claims victory by the slimmest of margins. How the corporate landscape will be impacted by the outcome is merely a guessing game.

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It’s been something of a topsy-turvy year, and couple of months in particular, for political uncertainty around the world. The on-going US election campaigns ahead of the November election have polarised opinion, while in the UK the Brexit vote has individuals and organisations alike trying to uncover the full extent of the changes.

And while there is likely to be more instability in the coming months, the ongoing uncertainty around the Australian election has the business community and procurement leaders watching with baited breath, given that what elements of business trade could be impacted by this is anyone’s guess.

With 80 per cent of the vote counted, we do know that Malcolm Turnbull will be returned as Prime Minister, after opposition Leader Bill Shorten admitting defeat on Sunday, according to recent media reports.

The Liberal Coalition is expected to win just enough seats (76) to form a majority government. But the rest of the line-up could take weeks to finalise. And Turnbull has an uncertain and challenging year ahead, as he faces difficult negotiations with independent members of parliament, a hostile Senate, and potential mutiny within his own party.

Complicated Situation

The election was held against the backdrop of a particularly complicated political environment. Laura Tingle, the Australian Financial Review political editor, helped to outline why in her keynote address to the Asia-Pacific CPO Forum in Melbourne earlier this year.

Back in 2013, Australian voters wanted to get rid of the Labor government, with many viewing it as a “soap opera“, as Julia Gillard first took over from PM Kevin Rudd in 2010, before being challenged by Rudd twice, resulting in Rudd leading Labor again at the 2013 election.

However, Tingle explained that the ‘coup’ in 2013 from Rudd isn’t the only reason the electoral situation was in flux.

“Voters have been utterly disappointed by the Coalition under Tony Abbott, and confused and angered by what has happened since Malcolm Turnbull took over,” she says.

The highly respected journalist and political commentator told forum attendees that it’s rare for there to be a uniform swing across seats in an election, and that she can’t think of an election where there are so many unknown factors at play that could create wild outcomes.

For example, the Melbourne seat of Batman, once considered technically the safest Labor seat in Australia (with margins of 21 per cent), was only just held by Labor during the election. The significant change is due in part to rapidly changing demographics in the seat.

In addition, there was a lack of clarity in the state of Queensland as to how the votes would be cast, with independents including the hard-right Pauline Hanson picking up support from dissatisfied voters.

Political Instability Ahead

Tingle argued that Australia was heading into a period of instability.

“When I say ‘uncertainty’, I mean it in the sense that we really don’t known what the election outcome will be if we judge it purely by the numbers.”

Prior to the election, the question was really about whether or not the electorate really wanted yet another change in prime minister.

“Ironically, I think it is the Coalition – the current government – which is more of a policy unknown that the Labor Party.

“The Coalition has been thrown off course in the last couple of years. First by its political incompetence and lack of policy savvy. The 2014 budget has become the byword for this, but there was much that proceeded it in terms of policy towards business even before the budget was brought down,” she says.

Complex Issue Resolution

Even if the government is returned to power, and it looks likely that it will happen, Tingle argued that the major issues, such as health funding, schools funding, and universities funding, would have to be sorted out one at a time, due to the complexity of the issues in the political environment.

“None of this, in reality, leads you to think that either side of politics can have a real breakthrough moment. There has already been a lot of commentary to the effect that much will depend on the size of the majority Turnbull is able to command in the House of Representatives.”

The most basic measure Tingle has learned covering politics and policy making for so long is the capability of politicians to react to the issues of the day.

“When I say that, I mean it is assessing what you believe their underlying capability is to deal with the stuff that comes along every day when governing a country, rather than the set piece policy positions you draw up beforehand.”

Government Procurement

However, it’s not all bad news, particularly from the point of view of public sector spending and government procurement. Even in the midst of the political upheaval and turmoil, it appears to be a case of “business as usual” for procurement.

The Federal Bureaucracy, which is unelected, and as such unaffected by the election until a result is declared, has assured people that the chaos is mainly isolated to the parliament itself.

They have stated that since the election, there have been a large number of state and local government authorities calling for tenders, announcements of grants, and new public works projects. In addition to this, there are tender notices still being issued for on-going projects, suggesting that business will continue however the final few seats fall.

What are your thoughts on the Australian elections? How will your business be impacted by the political uncertainty?

Meanwhile, we’ve been keeping track of the all the major procurement and supply chain news headlines this week…

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